Can Sports Science Win the World Cup?

As the world watches one of the pinnacles of sport at the Football World Cup, it’s important for us as practitioners to consider all that goes into tournaments like the World Cup, and also share this to fans of the sport so they have a greater understanding of what goes into preparing for tournament football before passing remarks.

The answer to the title question is no, of course not. The best team of athletes, that are coached the best, that stay injury- free, and maybe have a little luck will be the team that will win. But sports science and performance support teams can certainly help! 

Preparation for tournament football

Acute preparation

Very short preparation windows offer a unique challenge for football coaches & performance staff. The balancing act of squeezing in as much time on grass, with the acute and chronic fatigue from long seasons is difficult. International teams & coaches will inevitably have different tactics & strategies and playing styles to the multiple teams that players have gathered from. 

Some players that have gone deep into competitive fixtures (for example Champions League, Europa League and final weekend Premier League matches that had something to play for) will inevitably carry fatigue from long seasons of 9-10 months.

How do we as practitioners balance this? 

How do we make sure that athletes, coaches and even fans / commentators are aware of the demands and challenges?

Tournament and international football can expose players to different tactical, strategic, physical and emotional demands compared to club competitions. To some players playing in lower-tier competitions – there will be an enormous increase in physical intensity & density (playing a game every 3-5 days instead of 1 game every 7 days). For some players, the emotional weight of playing for your country can increase the pressure they feel & stress experienced by them. Some players in positions may be used to playing a low-/mid-block for their club, but their national team plays a high-pressing game.

For example, Roberto Carlos Lopes, a centre-back playing for Shamrock Rovers in Ireland, is playing for Cape Verde national team at the World Cup. The step up in intensity from the League of Ireland to facing teams that are all ranked higher than Cape Verde at the World Cup (rankings of teams in their group as of date of writing this article: Spain [3], Uruguay [18], Saudi Arabia [59]). Hopefully any players who are in this situation have been able to forecast their selection and develop physical qualities to support them at the tournament. The challenge for these players is to be able to keep up with their opposition intensity throughout not only 1 match, but multiple matches.

The relative physical intensity increase is apparent in the table below, showing data for Pico. And whilst the increase in distance per minute is small (4%), the relative increase in higher intensity actions shows the step up at the World Cup, compared to the Conference League, with high speed running (43.6%), sprint distance (16.7%) & accelerations per minute (88.4%) all showing large relative increases.

Data in the above table: Conference League data averaged from 6 matches from Gradient Sports. World Cup data from FIFA match Centre data.

Being generally stronger & fitter will help, but also specific conditioning to increase load tolerance and address any weaknesses prior to the tournament. Practitioners will be able to compare their physical intensity in training & match play to that of typical international fixtures, and try to ‘bridge the gap’. For example, if international fixtures have higher high-speed running & acceleration / deceleration demands than lower tier-club training & competitions, players can improve their readiness for competition by supplementing their training with higher-than-match-play conditioning drills.

Given the time to develop these qualities is limited, proper fueling prior to match play & training, and refueling post-match & training as well as targeted recovery strategies will help support & sustain performance at higher intensities.

Keeping non-starters fit

The playing minutes of tournament football will vary for players in different teams, and of different tournaments. Nations that have squads of great depth & talent, that come up against much lower ranked nations may be afforded the opportunity to ‘rotate’ squads. This ‘rotation’ allows for more players to accumulate tournament football minutes in the groups stages, and also provides better freshness.
Some nations, however, may not have that luxury. If certain positional depth is not as strong, and their chances of progressing are much smaller – they may need to play their best 11 for most of the minutes in every game. 

As we know, changes can happen quickly. Injuries, form, suspensions, or even arguments can quickly change a player’s status from starting to bench, or vice versa. Ensuring non-starting players are ‘ready’ is essential – and this applies from a technical, tactical, emotional and physical perspective. Coaches & performance staff will be busy behind the scenes manipulating exposure to speed, “topping-up” but also ‘stressing’ players’ systems with the stimulus they need to prepare for the next training session & game.

Using both GPS-derived data & heart rate data can help decision making around what dose is most appropriate, based on acute loading (what an athlete has done today, yesterday and recent days) and chronic loading (what an athlete has historically tolerated). Match-days will elicit the highest external & internal loads players are exposed to, and athletes who are not playing as many minutes will still need to seek this exposure to ensure they are prepared when called upon. 

High-intensity interval-based conditioning can be time-efficient ways to expose athletes to higher-than-match intensity, from a GPS-derived external load point of view, and also to high internal loads (heart rate above 80% for example). Constant conversations between performance coaches & football coaches will help determine which players take part in which additional sessions – these could be either or a mix of immediately post-match, MD+1 (training longer) or additional top-ups on MD+2. If teams are training on MD+1, usually the full squad (those who played and those who didn’t) will train together at lower intensity, and when the match-starters / high loads from match play finish, the non-starters, non-playing squad would complete additional football training, sometimes interspersed with running fitness drills.

Practitioners will likely be keeping an eye on metrics derived from microsensor technology such as:

• Total distance (metres / kilometres)
• High speed running distance (metres)
• Sprint distance (metres)
• Acceleration & deceleration distance (metres)
• External load intensity (the above metrics on a per minute basis, e.g. metres/min, accelerations per minute)
• External load density (the above metrics on an effort / count basis, e.g., sprint efforts, deceleration efforts)

Some heart rate derived measures & monitoring might include:

• Time spent in different heart rate zones 1-5
• Heart rate recovery 
• Average heart rate during a fixed block of work

Club & Country Communication

Understanding individual player strengths & weaknesses

More (but also ‘better’) intel about each player will allow coaches & backroom staff to make better decisions about particular players. We know that physical abilities (both fitness & strength) can have positive influences on reducing injury risk and accelerating recovery. I would say both of those aspects will be vital to success at the World Cup.

There will have been many conversations for national team coaches with close calls between players. At the World Cup, selection decisions may favour those who can play multiple positions, but also potentially those who are more robust. If 2 midfielders were “equal” based on talent & skill level, but one had higher strength & fitness levels, and has proved robustness through the season – those factors may be decisive for coaches.

An example scenario that I am sure involved many conversations & deliberations between England & Newcastle and the player himself, for Tino Livramento, who had quite an unfortunately turbulent season with injury. According to Transfermarkt, Tino missed 170 days this past season, missing a reported 36 games for club & country. That history, alongside his load tolerance, fitness levels, and strength, would have been strongly considered and factored in for his selection for the World Cup. His talent & input for the England squad was obviously worth selection for the England manager & coaching team, but unfortunately he has since been ruled out with injury before the first game of the tournament.

Fortunately for England, this injury occurred prior to their first match, and were able to call up Trevoh Chalobah as cover. Other injuries will undoubtedly occur for nations, and they will not have the same fortune to call up other players. This will actually place more stress on other players in squads, where they may need to train more with reduced numbers, which can also increase intensity.

Athlete load tolerance

International staff will (or should have) review historical load data from all players. 

• How many match minutes has each player accumulated?
• What is their weekly load usually?
• What variance do we think they can tolerate?
• How slow or fast is their recovery & response to certain stressors?
• What type of athletes are they?
• How strong & fit are each athlete in the squad?

When coaches come with questions, performance staff can then propose data-  informed recommendations.

Scenario:

Coach: we need 6 players who started today’s match to train tomorrow, who will be able to? 3 defenders, 2 midfielders, and 1 striker.

Performance Staff to coaches: based on the stressors they were exposed to, and what we know about them (training history, strength, fitness, tolerance), we recommend these 6 players. The other players usually need more time to recover, and don’t respond well to consecutive days of loading. We will take them through treatment & recovery to ensure they are ready to train on MD+2.

Performance Staff to athletes: based on your training & injury history, and output in yesterday’s match (GPS & heart rate), you (6 players) are going to train today to prepare for the next match. You (other starting players) are going to do recovery based on what you experienced yesterday, and how you are likely to report tomorrow. 

Coaches & Performance staff both need to inform and educate players as to why they are or aren’t training. These decisions are not based on performance, but are based on forecasting of who needs training minutes & load exposure, but also overall squad management so that availability is maximised for the duration of the tournament. When players understand the why behind these decisions, the collective group benefits. Squad availability will support the likelihood of success in the tournament, keeping your best players available deep into the knockout stages.

If you are a practitioner who works or has worked with international athletes, you will know and understand the challenge that sharing and transferring data can bring. It can be super time-intensive, errors can occur, differences in terminology, thresholds and even interpretation of alerts, flags and benchmarks can all confuse athlete management. If club and country are fortunate to share a system like SONRA, sharing this data is much more seamless. 

Managing turnarounds & travel

England & USA example:

England played Wednesday 17th, Tuesday 23rd and Saturday 27th in the group stages. This gives them a slightly different run in and preparation window than the US for example, who played group matches on Friday 12th, Friday 19th, and Thursday 25th. In the table example below, teams may structure this differently, but they will have planned out recovery & training days based on travel & fixtures days.

Whilst the group stages are set up within regions (East, West, Central), there are a few teams that play in central and either east / west. Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina had their first game in Toronto (East) and their second game in Vancouver / Los Angeles (West). which was one of the larger time zone & travel differences in the group stages.

Teams also have to contend with travel, and some may opt for travelling immediately after a game ( if kick-off logistics allow). This would be especially helpful for shorter turnarounds.

Athletes selected need to be robust (no call-ups)

Players can only be called up to the squad 24 hours before their first match, if a serious injury / illness occurs. Aside from this, the announced squad is the squad for the tournament. That means that players need to be fit and robust to allow managers & coaching teams to keep selecting them throughout the tournament. The accumulation of matches & training, travel, pressure all get bigger and bigger as the tournament progresses. Those athletes who can physically and psychologically handle & thrive in these situations will perform better.

Practitioners will have used previous tournaments and data from this season to determine which players they believe possess the durability to compete at the World Cup – physically (volume, intensity & density) and psychologically (pressure, expectations, emotional control).

Planning for the Knockout stages

Heat preparation

Hotter & more humid climates will be a challenge for many squads who are not adapted, but also not accustomed to living / playing in the heat.

Proper interpretation of physical data is essential. Heat can lower physical output, and so distances and high-intensity efforts will likely be lower. It will be important for performance staff & sports scientists to make sure athletes & coaches interpret this data properly. Lower physical output in the heat does not mean that an athlete was not “working hard enough”. Equally, coaching staff may review this data and think that because physical output was lower, they can push them harder in training the next day. Context is still king here.

The below table is an over-simplified example using total distance and average heart rate.

Return from Injury

Another complex layer that practitioners have to deal with is injury during the World Cup. There is the inevitable urgency & pressure associated with any injury & return, but this is further escalated in tournament football.

Trying to ensure the player is physically capable to handle the demands of returning to high level football, without over-loading them in the rehab process is a constant push-pull. Practitioners will use data to help support their process, and give confidence to both the player & the coaches that they are fit enough to return.

Backroom staff will safely and gradually expose players to increasing match demand intensity and running velocities. For example, if a player has a hamstring injury, performance & medical staff may want to see that player achieve 95% of their max velocity with a number of exposures prior to clearing them for match-play. They also may want to expose players to above-match intensity achieved in training for a certain duration (e.g., 15 minutes).

Practitioners will also use live data during rehab & training data to ensure targets are met, such as reaching a % of maximum velocity, and ensuring workload stays within planned ranges.

Rotation

Teams & managers can make up to 5 substitutions in each match. I suspect many teams and managers will have planned out certain substitutions to help manage athlete minutes, expose as many players to minutes as possible, and gauge certain combinations as well.

Performance staff will be able to provide coaches with workload & forecasted load to try to ensure players aren’t overloaded, especially as the tournament progresses. A coach may have some substitutions planned before the game, where staff can provide data & insights with more depth. There will of course be reactive substitutions too, where coaches will have to adjust players & formations & tactics in game, in response to how the game is playing out. 

Whilst (of course) substitution decisions will be made predominantly by the manager & coaching team, the data from a GPS point of view, alongside tolerance, fitness, and subjective monitoring, can help paint the full picture so the manager can make the best decisions for the individual players and the squad.

Scenario:

The manager knows that he wants to bring on a certain midfielder to give him 30 minutes in the second half of the game tomorrow. He may not have made up his mind on who he wants to take off. The decision is between 2 starting midfielders, some of the data (e.g., distance covered, recovery, wellness monitoring, and load forecasting) can help him decide on who may be best to take off to manage workload. 

If one of the starting midfielders has trained every day so far in the tournament, and we are seeing signs of accumulating fatigue (increasing resting heart rate above normal, rolling distance excessively above normal, reporting higher than normal soreness & tiredness) – the performance team may suggest that if possible, this player is the one to take off earlier. 

Tying it all together

Ultimately success for each nation will depend on many factors – talent, tactics, opposition, injuries (or lack of), performance to their potential, and luck. Sports science and ensuring player availability & freshness can certainly play a large part in helping.

Some of the key aspects that will go into contributing to success, particularly from a sports science lens

Communication is essential

• • This goes between performance & medical staff, coaches, athletes, club and data /tech companies
  • Timing of communication will have a big impact, where decisions need to be made both effectively and efficiently.

 Holistic decisions

• • • Gathering multifactorial data & insights based on load exposure, tolerance, wellness reporting, but also conversations, tactical understanding and experience will all contribute to better decisions made and hopefully better outcomes

Squad availability as a superpower

• • Every coach wants every player they have selected to be able to play every minute available
  • The balance of keeping players fresh as the tournament progresses, but also ensuring all players are fit enough to perform will help players themselves, but also help coaches giving them the confidence to select whoever they need to
  • Keeping non-starters “topped-up” will help players stay prepared for when they are called upon. There may be some situations as a result of injuries, where players who have minimal minutes in the group stages end up having high minutes in the knockouts.
    

    References

    1. https://digitalhub.fifa.com/asset/4b5d4417-3343-4732-9cdf-14b6662af407/FWC26-Match-Schedule_English.pdf
    2. https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/tino-livramento/verletzungen/spieler/503981
    3. https://statsports.com/sonra